Demand Forecasting for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines Considering Emission Regulations

Makers of heavy-duty diesel engines (HDDEs) need to reduce their inventory of old-generation products in preparation for the demand for next-generation products that satisfy new emission regulations. In this paper, a new demand forecasting model is proposed to reflect special conditions raised by the technological generational shift owing to new emission regulation enforcement. In addition, sensitivity analyses are conducted to better accommodate uncertainty involved at the time of prediction. Our proposed model can help support manufacturers’ production and sales management for a series of products in response to new emission regulations.